Calculator
Exit Calculator
What exit does this company need for you to make money?
At Seed, expect 3-5 more rounds before exit
Reality check
Median angel exit: 1.5-2x return (not 10x)
Time to liquidity: 7-10 years typical
Failure rate: ~65% of angel investments return less than invested
These probabilities are rough estimates based on industry data. Individual outcomes vary significantly.
Initial Ownership
0.250%
Ownership at Exit
0.125%
After 50% dilution
| Target | You Get | Required Exit | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2x | $50,000 | $40,000,000 | ~22% |
| 3x | $75,000 | $60,000,000 | ~14% |
| 5x | $125,000 | $100,000,000 | ~10% |
| 10x | $250,000 | $200,000,000 | ~7% |
| 20x | $500,000 | $400,000,000 | ~4% |
Probabilities are rough estimates based on historical venture outcomes by stage.
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How the exit calculator works
This startup exit calculator answers one question for an angel investor: how big does the company have to get for this check to return 2x, 3x, 5x, 10x, or 20x? Enter your investment, the post-money valuation, and the stage, and it shows the exit valuation each return multiple requires.
The formula
Your starting ownership is your investment divided by the post-money valuation. Later funding rounds dilute that stake, so ownership at exit is starting ownership times (1 minus expected dilution).
Required exit valuation = (investment x target multiple) / ownership at exit.
Worked example
A $25,000 check at a $10M post-money valuation buys 0.25% of the company. With 50% dilution before exit, that becomes 0.125%.
To return 10x ($250,000), the company has to exit for $200M. A 3x return needs a $60M exit.
Dilution defaults by stage
The calculator assumes 60% dilution from pre-seed to exit, 50% from seed, 35% from Series A, and 20% from Series B. Move the slider if you expect more or fewer rounds.
Common questions
- What exit valuation do I need for a 10x return?
- Divide 10 times your investment by your ownership at exit. For a $25,000 check at a $10M post-money valuation with 50% dilution, that is a $200M exit.
- Why does dilution matter so much?
- Every later round issues new shares, which shrinks your percentage. At 50% dilution the company has to exit at twice the valuation you would need with no dilution to produce the same return.
- How accurate are the probability estimates?
- They are rough estimates based on historical venture outcomes by stage. Use them to compare scenarios, not as a forecast for a specific company.